FIRMMILESTONE MARKETS
DEMO CREDITS ยท NO CASH VALUECreate a prediction

CHAPTER 3 OF 15

What FIRM is

FIRM is a market for company and crypto project outcomes. Every FIRM market is one binary question about one named company or project: will it reach a stated, measurable target by a fixed date. A market might ask whether a startup reaches $50,000 in monthly recurring revenue by the end of the quarter, evidenced by its own connected Stripe or Polar account. It might ask whether a token gets a spot listing on a named exchange, evidenced by that exchange's own listing page. It might ask how many holders a token has at a fixed snapshot time, evidenced by an on-chain read.

Each market has two sides. YES shares pay out if the target is reached. NO shares pay out if it is not. You do not have to guess at odds yourself: the market shows a live price on both sides, and that price is the crowd's current best guess at the probability, updated every time someone trades.

The four things every market fixes before anyone can trade

A FIRM market locks in its rules before it opens, and those rules do not change once trading starts. That is what makes the market trustworthy: nobody, including FIRM, can move the goalposts after people have taken a position.

  • The metric. One named, directional number tied to one company or project: at least $X in monthly revenue, at least Y holders, a listing on a named exchange, and so on.
  • The source. Either a company-authorized data connection (a revenue provider like Stripe or Polar, or a revenue-aggregation service) or a public, checkable source like an exchange's own listing page or an on-chain reading.
  • The deadline. A fixed date and time. The market checks the source at that point and settles.
  • The rules. What counts as a YES, what counts as a NO, and what happens if the source goes missing or the numbers become impossible to compare. These are written down and locked before the first trade.

What FIRM is not

FIRM is not a place to bet on the weather, an election, or the news. It is not a general-purpose casino. Every market on FIRM points at one company or project's own outcome, and every market resolves from that company or project's own evidence, not from an admin's opinion or a crowd vote.

FIRM is also not, today, a place to trade with real money. The product you can use right now, described end to end in the next chapter, runs on demo credit that has no cash value. That is deliberate: it lets anyone learn how markets, pricing, and resolution actually work before any real money is on the line, while the settlement, security, and legal work needed for real-money markets is finished. Real USDC settlement on Solana is built and tested, and turning it on is the project's next milestone.