How it works
An outcome. A deadline. Your position.
FIRM is building prediction markets for crypto projects and companies. Make a free forecast, bring a public prediction, or explore trading with demo credits. Start with the route that fits what you want to do.
Start here
Three ways to use FIRM.
I want to make a prediction
Open a reviewed question. Pick YES or NO and how sure you are. Save your free forecast, then share your prediction card. No deposit or wallet is needed. An account keeps your record across devices.
Find a questionI saw a prediction worth testing
Paste the public words and source. Define a clear question, deadline and proof. After review, people can forecast on it. You do not need to own the project.
Add a public predictionI want to explore trading
The demo board lets you buy and sell YES or NO positions using demo credits. Those credits have no cash value. The trading examples below explain this separate experience.
Explore the demo boardA free forecast records an opinion. A demo trade uses simulated credits. Neither is a cash payout. After a question is decided, its result and your earlier forecast form a permanent record.
Three steps
Pick an outcome. Trade a view. Follow the evidence.
01
Choose a precise question
One project, one outcome, one cutoff. Token holders, spot listings, volume, protocol fees, revenue or customers. Every proposed market needs a reproducible source and an explicit missing-data rule.
02
Trade YES or NO
A price is a probability. YES at 60¢ means the board gives it a 60 percent chance. Every share pays $1 if you are right and $0 if you are wrong. Exiting before close depends on available liquidity. The examples here use demo credits with no cash value.
03
Get paid from the source
After the cutoff, evidence is assessed against the fixed rules. A proposal has a dispute window. Missing data follows the published fallback; a pasted URL alone is not verification.
The twist
Participate in the projects you follow.
Each market lists the actions it allows before the first bet: refer a customer, buy the product, share the market. The company wants the crowd to push the number. The source decides the result.
Pays $100 if Lumen AI hits $25,000 MRR by Oct 31.
Written into the rules. Logged against the market.
Read from Stripe on the deadline.
Net +$39.40, plus whatever the company paid for the referral.
Why companies play along: a target becomes distribution, referrals, customers, and a public proof record. The company keeps its own checkout. Customer revenue never passes through FIRM.
Referral bets
Companies pay for referrals with bets instead of coupons.
In the product this is called a Position Drop. The shares are bought and paid for before they move. Nothing is minted.
Lumen AI buys 1,000 YES shares on its own market. Rule: 10 shares per referred paying customer.
1,000 YES in escrowYour friend signs up through your link. Stripe records the new customer.
Referral verified10 YES shares land in your account, yours to hold or sell.
+10 YESEvery referral pushes MRR toward the target. Hit it, and each share pays $1.
Pays $10 if YESCrypto market rules
Similar numbers can mean very different things.
Holders are addresses
Fix the chain, token address, minimum balance, excluded addresses and snapshot time. Wallet count is not a count of unique people.
Listings need official evidence
The listing template requires spot trading to begin on the named exchange and pair. Announcements, deposits and futures do not count.
Volume is not transactions
USD volume measures traded value. Transaction count measures qualifying activity. Define venues, exclusions, pricing and how duplicate activity is removed.
What is real today
A working demo on a real ledger. Not yet real money.
- Markets, prices, and a bet slip on a bounded market maker
- Buy and sell with demo credits on a PostgreSQL ledger
- Disclosed actions and referral bets
- Project listing, crypto market drafts, Stripe and Polar connection flows
- Cash deposits, withdrawals, or payouts
- Verified crypto analytics and exchange-listing feeds
- A real connected company or a live-resolved market
- Any traction claim
- The FIRM token: 10,000,000,000 fixed supply, proposed, launched only after the network works
When Demo Mode is active, FIRM fills tradeable versions of public questions with generated trader handles, prices and trading history. Visitors can trade with a starting $1,000 balance without a wallet or deposit. All trades use credits with no cash value, and company measurements stay sourced. The navigation, homepage and order ticket identify the experience; simulated activity remains flagged in API data and never earns rewards, referrals or prizes. Turning Demo Mode off hides its markets, activity and rankings before real trading opens.