DEMO CREDITS · NO CASH VALUECreate a prediction
THE FIRM RULEBOOK
Every market starts with the answer key.
The metric, source, deadline, fallback, dispute window, void rule, and allowed participant influence are fixed and visible before a position is taken.EXAMPLE MARKET
Will Lumen AI reach $50K MRR by December 31?
YES64¢NO36¢
- Metric
- Normalized monthly recurring revenue
- Source
- Company-authorized Stripe connection
- Deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
- YES condition
- Metric is at least $50,000 at determination
- Source failure
- Pause 72 hours, then use the fixed fallback or void
- Influence
- Trading, referrals, sharing, and product purchases are allowed
DEMO LEDGER
One dollar of winning value. No mystery accounting.
The public release includes demo credits and free forecasts. Free forecasts have no payouts or rewards. Real-money settlement is not enabled.
EDGE CASES
The uncomfortable questions are part of the product.
A holder has only a dust balance
New inclusive holder templates count every distinct owner address with a positive balance, including dust and burn addresses. Multiple token accounts belonging to one owner count once. Addresses are not people.
Trading volume includes related wallets
The named provider's reported volume counts. FIRM adds no organic-activity or wash-trading filter. Provider coverage, units and reporting intervals are fixed before publication.
A token appears on Binance Alpha
A new broad Binance-listing question includes Alpha, spot, derivatives and premarket product listings. A question explicitly limited to spot trading keeps that narrower rule. Official evidence must identify the exact asset and deadline.
A definition changes after publication
The saved question and rules remain authoritative. New template defaults do not rewrite existing markets, and AI does not reinterpret a traded question.
A trader buys the company's product
Allowed. FIRM is a participatory market. Product purchases may influence the metric and are disclosed before the market opens.
An insider trades
Market activity is shown separately from source evidence. Consider how participants can influence the measured result when choosing a side.
The metric source goes stale
The market follows its published data window. Automatic free questions wait up to 24 hours for eligible evidence, then cancel without a winner if it remains missing or conflicting.
A payment is refunded
The normalized source metric updates. The market resolves from the metric definition fixed at open, including how refunds and disputes are treated.
Someone shares only to claim a drop
The drop is funded before it is offered. Acceptance, expiry, rejection, and duplicate claims conserve the ledger.
The company never claims its profile
Community markets can still use accepted public sources. They remain labeled community-created and cannot claim owner authorization.
The company connects Stripe later
The owner can claim the profile, authorize the direct source, and create official markets. Existing rules and revisions remain visible.
The goal is reached early
The market still follows its fixed determination time unless the published rule explicitly permits early resolution.
YES and NO prices do not total exactly one dollar
The demo AMM quotes both sides from one bounded cost function. Rounding is shown, and accounting reconciles to the ledger.
A market is disputed
The preliminary result, evidence, and dispute window stay visible. Settlement waits until the published window closes.
A market is voided
Eligible demo positions are unwound under the published void rule. Fees and transfers reconcile in the audit record.
$FIRM has not launched
Nothing in the current product requires it. Company discovery, markets, data connections, and demo Position Drops work first.