CHAPTER 1 OF 15

Abstract

Every company has a next number. A startup's monthly revenue. A crypto project's next exchange listing. A creator's subscriber count. People form strong opinions about these numbers constantly, in group chats, on social media, in Discord servers, and almost none of it goes anywhere. There is no place to put a real position behind the claim, and no way to see, in one glance, what the crowd actually believes.

FIRM is a market for exactly this. A FIRM market asks one clear, measurable question about one company or project, with a fixed deadline and a named, verifiable source: will this company reach this number by this date. Traders buy YES or NO shares. The price moves as people trade, and that price is the crowd's live estimate of the probability. When the deadline arrives, the answer comes from the evidence, not from a vote, and winning shares pay out.

Today, FIRM runs on demo credits with no cash value, so anyone can try the full product, from browsing markets to trading to watching a market resolve, without any money at risk. Real USDC settlement on Solana is next. It is built and tested, and it turns on once the payment, security and operations work around it is complete.

Alongside the market, FIRM is building tools that make markets easy to make, easy to share, and rewarding to spread: free forecasts anyone can post without a wallet, permanent share receipts, challenge links that dare a friend to take the other side, and sponsor-funded position pools that hand out real positions to people who take a disclosed action. None of this mints value from nothing. Every reward is funded and collateralized before it is offered.

A network token, $FIRM, is planned for later, after the network has real usage. $FIRM is not launched, has no price, and is not for sale. Its purpose is utility, not return: it is designed to be used for scarce campaign and listing slots, fee discounts, curation, and incentive routing, so that as activity on FIRM grows, demand for what $FIRM does grows with it.

This document explains what FIRM is, how a market works end to end, where the evidence that resolves a market comes from, how the market's pricing engine works, what makes FIRM built to spread, what founders and projects get from being listed, the design of the $FIRM token, and what FIRM is building next.